MARK BELLING’S 2025 PREAKNESS STAKES ANALYSIS

OVERVIEW

The Triple Crown schedule is archaic.  Horses run nowhere near as frequently now as they did in the past yet the half-century old schedule of the Preakness being two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes three weeks after the Preakness is still in place.  But top horses virtually never run with two weeks rest anymore.  This year the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty isn’t even trying the Preakness, meaning there is no chance for a Triple Crown.   Third place Derby finisher Baeza, like Sovereignty, is being pointed to the Belmont Stakes and will not run in the Preakness.  The schedule needs to be changed.  My suggestion is to keep the Derby on the first Saturday in May, run the Preakness on the first Saturday in June and the Belmont Stakes the first Saturday in July.

A surprise entrant in this year’s Preakness is the second place Derby finisher, Journalism.  The horse was favored in the Derby and was also my pick.  His owner and trainer say the horse is sharp and they’re bringing him to the Preakness.  I hope they aren’t making a terrible mistake.  I suspect Journalism is here because the other top horses from the Derby aren’t.  The Derby was run on a wet track and there’s a very good chance of a lot of rain in Baltimore for the Preakness.

I had a spectacular Derby as my 1-2-3 horses ran 2-1-3.  I just missed nailing the trifecta cold.   I’ll assess the field in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1  Goal Oriented   Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness a record eight times and this is his entrant this year.  The horse ran on Derby Day at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, but in a lesser allowance race.  Baffert is one of the few trainers who isn’t bothered by running on two weeks rest.  This is only the horse’s third lifetime start but the first two were impressive.  He is very likely to be sent to the lead.  Jockey Flavien Prat is as good as they come.  Baffert’s National Treasure wired the field two years ago and this one has a major chance of doing the same thing.  The pedigree is great for both the distance and a wet track.

#2   Journalism   I touted him as a potential superstar before the Derby and while he didn’t win, he ran just fine, finishing second.  The top three Derby finishers were in a different zip code than the remainder of the field and I think all three are elite horses.  But Journalism doesn’t have to contend with either Sovereignty or Baeza here.  His stalking style is perfect for the way this race seems to be setting up.  But I have concerns.  The two week comeback might be too soon.  On the other hand, many horses handle it fine and only pay the price down the road.  My larger concern, and I expressed it in my Derby write-up, is that Journalism peaked with his brilliant California race in March.  His speed figures in his next race and in the Derby showed slight regression.  He has done far more than any other horse in the field but he’s not a cinch.

#3   American Promise    This horse ran in the Derby and finished a weak 16th, fading terribly after chasing a torrid pace.   Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a tendency to over-run his horses and, at age 89, he still loves the spotlight.   On the other hand, Lukas won the Preakness last year with longshot Seize the Gray.  I will be very surprised if he does it again.

#4   Heart of Honor   This is the only foreign-based horse in the race.  He ran second to Admire Daytona in the UAE Derby in Dubai in March.  Admire Daytona ran dead last in the Derby.  History is being made with this horse.  It’s the first time a father-daughter trainer-jockey combo has been entered in a Triple Crown race.  Trainer Jamie Osborne’s daughter Saffie is the rider.

#5   Pay Billy   This is the local horse in the race.  He has won two straight in Maryland but against much weaker fields and his speed figures are way too slow.

#6   River Thames   Trainer Todd Pletcher wisely bypassed the Derby with this horse to target the Preakness, guessing he’d get a softer field.  This horse has run four fine races but he didn’t win either of his last two.  On the other hand, his second place finish two back was really close and the horse that beat him was Sovereignty who went on to win the Kentucky Derby.  The horse is bred to just relish a wet track but his sire was a sprinter and this race is a route.

#7   Sandman   He went off as the second betting choice in the Derby for no reason having anything to do with racing.  One of his minority owners is a TikTok superstar and he’s been bragging on his horse.  Plus, the name is the same as a big Metallica song and a superhero in a Netflix series.  He ran seventh in the Derby.  Trainer Mark Casse is no dummy and his decision to wheel the horse back in the Preakness has to be respected.  He won the Arkansas Derby two races back on a wet track with a fast pace and both are possible in the Preakness.

#8   Clever Again   He was ineligible for the Derby because he didn’t run in any of the races with qualifying points.  But he ran a tremendous race against a lesser field March 30 at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and is well rested for this race.  He has a lethal combination: he has great early tactical speed and a pedigree to run forever.  This is his third race of the year.  He made his career debut as a very early two year old last year but went to the sidelines until this year.  (Horses with that background…….start real early and then comeback much later….often become stars; that’s an angle I think I’m the only guy to have picked up on.)  Jockey Jose Ortiz, who is having a great year, gave up the mount on Sandman to ride Clever Again.  One knock: with his early speed and outside post, he may be hung wide on the first turn and lose ground.  If he can overcome that, he can win this race.  Don’t sleep on this one.

#9   Gosger   I have mixed feelings on this horse.   The private clocker I use is raving about his recent workouts.  He’s coming off a win in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, a race for horses not quite good enough for the Derby.  Excellent trainer and jockey.  But his speed figures, including from the win in the Lexington, seem too slow and he will need huge improvement here to win.  He’s another horse with perfect breeding for a route race on a track with moisture in it.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

SUGGESTED WAGERS

In order of preference (do not avoid win place and show betting)

Adjust dollar amount to your comfort level

$20 to win place and show on #8 ($60)

$5 to win place and show on #1 and #2 ($30)

$10 exacta box 1-2-8 ($60)

$3 exacta box 1-2-6-8 ($36)

$5 trifecta box 1-2-8 ($30)

50-cent trifecta box 1-2-6-8 ($12)

$1 trifecta 1-2-8 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-6-7-8-9 ($24)

50-cent trifecta 1-2-8 with 1-2-6-7-8-9 with 1-2-6-7-8-9 ($30)

$2 exacta 2-8 with 1-2-6-7-8-9 ($20)

$1 exacta 1-2-6-7-8-9 with 2-8 ($10)

$2 daily double 1-2-8 with 9 ($6) (this bet is linked to race 14 at Pimlico, a stakes race for Arabian horses, not thoroughbreds)