By Mark Belling

Conservatives’ chances of finally winning a Wisconsin State Supreme Court seat have taken a major hit. Incumbent Justice Rebecca Bradley, a nationally influential conservative jurist, is not likely to run for another ten-year term on the court in April of next year.

Sources close to Bradley say she has been discussing her options on a run with close advisers and political strategists. Those familiar with Bradley’s thinking say she has not made a final decision but that it is unlikely that she will run. Bradley is not publicly confirming anything on her thinking. But the sources say Bradley is aware that leftist candidates have won every Supreme Court election in Wisconsin since 2019.

All of those unsuccessful conservative candidates have been outspent by liberal opponents who raised more money for their campaigns and/or hard the support of more independent-expenditure third party funding. In addition, conservative voter turnout in the spring elections in which Supreme Court races are held has lagged far behind liberal voter turnout.

The result is that a Court that once had a 5-2 conservative majority is now tilted 4-3 to the left. Even worse for conservatives, the next two seats up for election are held by conservatives Bradley next year and Chief Justice Annette Ziegler in 2027.

Many believe Bradley would have an advantage over recent failed Court candidates because she is a woman on a court in which voters have clearly favored female candidates with six of the seven Justices being women. But even if Bradley runs, her likely liberal opponent will be another woman, Dane County Circuit Judge Chris Taylor.

Bradley has been loathed by leftists for years because of her unwavering conservative judicial principles. She writes many compelling dissents that have been quoted by national conservative legal scholars. Her win in 2016 came after a brutal campaign that even included slimy allegations about her earlier marriage and divorce. She squeaked by with the advantage of incumbency, having been appointed to the bench before the election by then-Governor Scott Walker. Indeed, prior to this decade conservatives won most Supreme Court elections by painting the liberal candidates as soft on crime.

But the left has since made these races a national priority and liberal candidates have raised tens of millions of dollars from out of state leftist donors. In the most recent election earlier this year, conservative Brad Schimel was slaughtered by ten percentage points by leftist Susan Crawford.

The sources I have spoken with have direct knowledge of Bradley’s thinking and she is realistic about her prospects should she run again. Given the viciousness of recent campaigns, Bradley doesn’t appear to want put up with months of character assassination in a campaign that is likely to be futile.

One wild card: at some point the Supreme Court is likely to overturn Act 10, which would result in an explosion in Wisconsin property taxes. That could create the kind of backlash beneficial to a conservative candidate. But it doesn’t appear that tax explosion would occur until after next year’s election so it might be too late for Bradley to benefit from it.

Mark Belling
June 11, 2025