Belling.com

OVERVIEW

The Triple Crown ain’t what it used to be. For decades, it was a series in which the best three year old horses faced off in three classic races spread over five weeks. But racing has changed. Trainers don’t run their horses as much as they used to and most loathe running horses on short rest. While racing has changed, the schedule of the Triple Crown races has not. The Preakness is run a mere two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes three races after that. The schedule is as outdated as baseball was before it banned the shift and introduced the pitch clock.

The upshot is that only one horse that ran two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby is in Saturday’s Preakness. That’s the Derby winner, Mage, who is primarily running because the only way to win the Triple Crown is to win all three races. Every one of the other 18 Derby horses is absent from the Preakness, including the horses that scratched before the Derby was even run.
A modest fix would be to add an extra week between the Derby and the Preakness but that wouldn’t accomplish much. Trainers just aren’t going to run top horses without at least a month between races, at least not in the United States. My suggestion is to keep the Derby on the first Saturday in May, move Baltimore’s Preakness to the first Saturday in June and New York’s Belmont Stakes to the first Saturday in July. It makes a lot of sense but change in horse racing can take forever. This year’s Preakness mess might speed things up.

Messed up or not, you can still bet on the Preakness. You may recall, and if you don’t I’m reminding you, that last year I PICKED THE PREAKNESS SUPERFECTA COLD!!! I nailed the top four finishers in EXACT ORDER 1-2-3-4. Unfortunately, First Mission had been my strong pick to win the race until he was scratched. The remainder of the field is very mediocre and, by default, I’m ending up in betting bed with the infernal white-haired charlatan from California and his horse who will be the race’s “lone speed.” My plays on this race are only mild opinions

THE FIELD

#1 National Treasure—Trainer Bob Baffert is banned from Churchill Downs and thus, the Kentucky Derby, but he’s not banned anywhere else and he has a legitimate contender to win the Preakness which the old cheat has done an amazing seven times. This is a serious horse who has run with the best in California. He has natural speed and Baffert is adding blinkers, which usually enhances a horse’s early speed. There is no doubt the plan here is to try to win the race wire-to-wire. Not only is National Treasure likely to be in front, he might be way out front and has a chance to simply run away from everybody else.

#2 Chase the Chaos—The longest shot in the field, this horse has been an also ran when facing top California horses.

#3 Mage—I was sure surprised this horse won the Derby. He’s only the third horse ever to win who didn’t race as a two year old and didn’t seem to have the seasoning needed to win. But he not only won but powered away in the stretch in an extremely impressive performance. It was by far the best race that any horse in this field has ever run. But the question of his inexperience is still there and you have to wonder if he will regress on the type of short rest trainers hate to run horses on. On the other hand, the majority of horses that run big in the Derby come back to run big in in the Preakness. If he wins here, he will be in three weeks one of the more unlikely candidates to sweep the Triple Crown.

#4 Coffeewithchris—This is a local Maryland-based horse trained by a guy with a history of bringing in longshots. But the trainer has never won a race like this one. The horse is very consistent and runs well in races about two notches lower than this one. He does have tactical speed and I think he may be running second in the early stages behind National Treasure.

#5 Red Route One—He comes from way, way, WAAAAAAAAY back. This is an improving horse with lots of experience coming off a win in a lesser stakes in Arkansas. But his closing style is not well suited to the pace scenario in this year’s Preakness. The trainer and the jockey are among the best in the country.

#6 Perform—After losing his first five races, he’s won two in a row against lesser competition but he’s clearly improving and is trained by a Hall of Famer. His speed figures are nowhere near fast enough to win the Preakness so he needs to make a major step forward. If you’re looking for a big longshot in a race that won’t have many high priced horses, this might be your guy.

#7 Blazing Sevens—Trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness last year with a horse that skipped the Derby and pointed for the Baltimore race. He’s trying the same thing here. The jockey is the absolute best in America, Irad Ortiz. But Blazing Sevens is a rare Brown-trained horse that hasn’t improved with age. He was one of the top two year olds last year but his two starts this year have been mediocre. He also has a running style that isn’t ideal, coming from well off the pace. But it’s risky to ever ignore a Chad Brown horse and Ortiz has an uncanny ability to make perfect riding decisions during a race.

#8 First Mission—SCRATCHED

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

SOME WAGERS
(in order of preference)

(Adjust bet amounts to fit your budget)
$10 to win place and show on #1 National Treasure ($30)
$3 exacta partial wheel 1 with 3-4-5-6-7 ($15)
$1 exacta partial wheel 3-4-5-6-7 with 1 ($5)
$2 superfecta 1-3-7-5 ($2)
After what I did last year, I have to play that last bet

My opinion in the race is mild as I felt First Mission towered over the field, but alas…….

ONE OTHER RACE

I like a longshot in Race 5 at Pimlico, #7 Amani’s Image (8-1) (no play if race is taken off turf)

OVERVIEW

I often point out the Derby is the hardest horse race to handicap.   No other race in America has a field as large as 20 so there are a lot of options.  The size of the field means there is a lot of traffic and bumping and many horses who might have done well have trips so troubled they have no shot.  (It’s almost impossible to predict who those will be.)   Last year, I correctly identified the Louisiana Derby as the key prep race.  Indeed, all top runners from that race fired big in the Kentucky Derby.  Unfortunately, the ultimate outsider, ultra-longshot Rich Strike beat all of them at 80-1.   Somebody may have picked that winner but I’ve never found such a person.

Until the wagering opens Friday morning, the odds quoted are the projections of the track’s oddsmaker.   He has made Forte the 3-1 favorite.  I believe that is dead wrong.  I do not think Forte will be the betting favorite and I think the odds on the actual favorite will be no lower than 5-1.  After Rich Strike’s longshot win last year, lots of casual bettors will be looking for huge scores and betting on also-rans.   This will result in higher odds than normal for the more-favored horses.

A dry track is forecast for Saturday.  The race itself doesn’t have a lot of early speed type horses.   This means there will be a lot of bunched-up traffic and the potential for a roughly run race.   Whoever wins will have gotten an excellent ride from its jockey.

I have narrowed down the likely winner to one of six horses and will lay out reasons in my analysis below.    Scratches are allowed up to late morning Friday.   Two have already scratched as of this writing and two others have drawn into the race off the “also eligible list.”  This is how Rich Strike got in last year.  If there are additional scratches I will not be able to update the copy here.

I’ll assess each horse in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1  Hit Show—The rail isn’t as awful a post position as it used to be but it’s still not great.   This horse has improved its speed figure in each of its last five races and is trained by Brad Cox, the “new” Bob Baffert, who hasn’t won a Derby yet but wins everything else and is likely to have about five of them by the time he’s done.

#2  Verifying—The second Brad Cox-trained horse (more to come).   This one has good tactical speed and he’ll need to use it from his inside position.  Got a monster speed figure in his second place finish last out in the Blue Grass Stakes.  His workouts at Churchill Downs the past two weeks have been super.  Possible winner.

#3  Two Phil’s—Another legit contender.   Ran a big race in his Derby prep but that was on a synthetic surface against a weak field.   Trained by the guy that has dominated racing in Illinois the last few years and ridden by the jockey that has done the same.  But neither has won a big national race.  I expect this one to lay six or seven lengths off the early pace and avoiding traffic trouble is critical.

#4  Confidence Game—I have no confidence in my analysis of this one.   He hasn’t raced in ten weeks because of issues after his last start but that was a bang-up effort.   The trainer has struck again and again with longshots.   History says you don’t win the Derby off such a long layoff but things are changing rapidly.   I’m not using this horse but I’m wary of him.

#5  Tapit Trice—One of the “other Pletchers.”  The term comes from the amazing frequency in which trainer Todd Pletcher wins races in which he has multiple entrants but the less touted of his horses wins.   This is Pletcher’s best shot this year, not the hype horse Forte.   This one comes from off the pace so traffic issues are again a concern but he’s won four races in a row and it looks the 1 ¼ mile distance of the race will suit him.  He has looked very good on the track at Churchill this week (I watch all the works and use the services of a private clocker).

#6  Kingsbarns—The second Pletcher horse, or the other other Pletcher.  This one is making only his fourth career start but his last race was a crushing win in the Louisiana Derby.  He has excellent early speed and may avoid the traffic issues that could compromise so many horses in the race.   The horse is very well bred.  The big problem is he never raced last year as a two year old it is almost impossible to win the Kentucky Derby without having a two year old foundation.

#7  Reincarnate—This is one of those horses that was trained by the notorious cheater Bob Baffert.  Baffert is banned from the race by Churchill Downs (a great thing) and transferred the horse to trainer Tim Yakteen.  Not surprisingly, the horse has regressed a bit since.  But his races aren’t bad.  His program odds are 50-1 and that’s too high.

#8  Mage—This is a very talented horse but he didn’t start his career until the end of January and he is being unwisely rushed into this race.  If his owner/trainer had waited two weeks to run in the Preakness, they might have won it.

#9   Skinner—There are a lot of reasons this horse can win including that his trainer has already won the Derby.   He has a stalking style that is ideal for this year’s Derby and he keeps improving.  This horse has been on my radar as a potential Derby winner for weeks and he is coming into the race perfectly.   The owner and trainer made a gutsy decision and booted off jockey Victor Espinoza who has won three Kentucky Derbys.  They replaced him with Juan Hernandez, who has never won the race.   But right now Hernandez is a far better rider than the aging Espinoza and the upgrade in rider ability is significant.   I’m just not sure if the horse is good enough but this is the most perfectly prepared horse in the race.

#10  Practical Move—SCRATCHED.

#11  Disarm—Trainer Steve Asmussen has won more races than any trainer in horse racing history!  Yet he has never won the Derby.  This one doesn’t look like he’ll be the one to do it.  He showed ability early in his career but hasn’t improved.   He does have an excellent jockey.

#12  Jace’s Road—The third Brad Cox-trained horse and seemingly the least talented.    It’s possible his rider will gun him to the lead and try to steal the race on the front.

#13  Sun Thunder—The trainer is very hot right now but this horse would have to improve by eight lengths over  any of his previous races to win here.   Rich Strike did that last year but hardly any other Derby runner has.

#14  Angel of Empire—The fourth Brad Cox-trained horse and the likeliest to give him his first Derby win.   There are no knocks on this horse at all.  He’s coming off an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby and keeps getting better as the races get longer.  He may improve again here.  He has one of the best riders in America in Flavien Prat whose great strength is positioning horses to get clear runs and that is critical here because this one will come from off the pace.  His Churchill Downs workouts have been very strong and effortless.  He looks good.

#15  Forte—Until a few weeks ago he was my pick (and everybody else’s) to win the Derby.   He’s won six in a row and is last year’s two year old champion.   But I was at the Florida Derby this year and watched Forte, for the first time, struggle and show not so much an explosive burst but a grinding all-out run to the finish line.  He won but he won ugly.   I think the horse has peaked.  He has been the best horse in this field so far but the Derby is in the future and not the past.   I’m taking a big stand against him despite the fact that he is trained by the great Todd Pletcher and ridden by hands-down the best jockey in the United States, Irad Ortiz.

#16  Raise Cain—Upsets happen.  And if this one wins, it’ll be a big upset.

#17  Derma Sotogake—I will spend a long time writing about this horse because there is a lot of evidence both for and against him.  I’ll start with the positives.  He’s a Japanese based horse and Japan horses are the best in the world, especially on dirt.  Japanese horses rarely run in the United States but they have taken down some of our biggest races in recent years and are killing it in Europe and the Middle East.   Second, Derma’s win last out in the UAE Derby was by far (I stress that) the best performance by any of the Derby horses in a prep race this year.   He got a huge number on the private Thoro-Graph speed figure system.  In short, he’s run better than anybody and comes from the toughest and best racing circuit in the world.  Now, the negatives and there are a lot.   1.  No horse has ever used the UAE Derby as a prep to win the Kentucky Derby.  2.  No Japan based horse has ever won the Derby or even finished in the top three.  3.  His sire was a sprinter and so was his sire’s sire.  The Derby is the opposite of a sprint.  4.  His jockey, one of the best in Japan, has no experience with the rodeo that is the Kentucky Derby and the unique pace and traffic challenges.   5.   He’s looked so-so at best in his appearances on the Churchill Downs track the last two weeks and has resisted his rider’s urges to settle and not run off.  Reasons 3, 4 and 5 actually trouble me.  Reasons 1 and 2 do not.  The reason no horse has come from the UAE Derby to win is that most horses from that race are second tier.  This one is at the top of the first tier.  As for reason number two, while no Japanese horse has ever won the Derby, few have tried and most were not top caliber.   I swear, if you did nothing all year but bet Japanese horses in races somewhere other than Japan you’d come out ahead.   One other point: this horse has excellent tactical speed and if properly ridden (a giant if) can avoid trouble and cruise away in the stretch.  Don’t be shocked if this horse is the betting favorite.  Lots of people agree with me on him and Japanese bettors are known to bet lots of money.

#18  Rocket Can—Well, I suppose Rocket can.  But maybe he can’t.  He’s going to be gunned toward the front from his outside post position and will have identical running style to Derma Sotogake.

#19  Lord Miles—SCRATCHED.   Trainer Saffie Joseph has been banned by Churchill Downs.  Good riddance.

#20  Continuar—This is another Japanese based horse and if you read above you know what I think about that.  The trainer has run two horses in United States stakes in his career and won both of them.  But this horse has looked absolutely terrible in his training and was annihilated by Derma Sotogake in a joint workout.

#21  Cyclone Mischief—He draws into the race because of Practical Move’s scratch.  He hasn’t done enough to suggest he’s a win candidate. in if there’s a scratch.

#22  Mandarin Hero—This horse draws in because of the two scratches.  He is a contender to win the race.   He is a Japan-based horse and was unbeaten there but ran on a minor league circuit and not the top tier Japan Racing Association.   In his only American start he finished a very close second in last month’s Santa Anita Derby.  His wide post position hurts but his American race merits respect and any top horse from Japan must be closely considered in an American race.

#23  King Russell—Needs an additional scratch to draw into the race.  If he does and if he wins, it will be as big a shock as Rich Strike’s victory last year.  Needs three scratches to get in and that is almost certain not to happen.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

SUGGESTED WAGERS

These are listed in order of preference.   The very best value and smallest house edge on bets in the Derby is old fashioned win place and show.

Adjust dollar amounts to your budget.  My numbers are simply a ranking for evaluation purposes

A large bet to win place and show on #17

A bet half that size to win place and show on #14

$4 exacta box 2-5-9-14-17-22 ($120)

$3 exacta 17 with all ($57)

$2 exacta All with 17 ($38)

50 cent trifecta box 2-5-9-14-17-22 ($60)

FRIDAY

In the Kentucky Oaks, I like #6 Botanical (4-1), #4  Southlawn (8-1), #7 Wet Paint (5-2) and #1 Mimi Kakushi (20-1) in that order.   Also Friday, I like #9 Undervalued Asset in Race 2, #1 Smokin T in Race 3,  #2 Search Results in Race 9, #5 Preliminary and #11 Revalita in Race 10 and #1 Curl Girl in Race 12.  Longshot Play: Race 1 Friday take a small stab at #4.

BETTING AND TV

To legally bet, you need to establish an account with one of the many legal US-based companies.  In no particular order, some are: Xpressbet, 1stBet, NYRA Bets, DRF Bets, FanDuel and Twin Spires.   Coverage of the races throughout the day Friday and Saturday is on Peacock (a streaming service).  The Derby itself airs on NBC (Channel 4 in Milwaukee).

OVERVIEW

This year’s races are held at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. The weather is expected to be very good. The turf course is lush which is the type European horses do well on. The dirt course has a tendency to favor early speed but that isn’t always the case. The big caveat on my picks: I am making these selections on Wednesday and unable to update them. If the track is excessively favoring early speed, or, for that matter, closers, I will adapt in my own wagering. Use these picks as an insight into my thinking and not necessarily my final opinion at race time.

Longshots often win Breeders’ Cup races. That’s because most of the horses are very talented and there isn’t a big gap between the longshots and the favorites. Rather than playing my top selection, consider choosing one of my lesser picks that presents greater value.

My favorite Breeders’ Cup bet is the pick three. It can be bet in as low as 50-cent increments. Consider using all of the horses I list and each race and bet rolling pick threes or daily doubles.

The big story of the weekend is Flightline. The overwhelming favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he has run the fastest speed figures of any American horse since Secretariat in 1973. The problem is that he raced only five times in his life. Modern trainers believe horses should run very little in order to produce top results each time they run. For this reason, I refuse to, so far at least, lump Flightline in with Secretariat. But if he romps Saturday, I may have to reconsider. The field in the Classic is very strong and Flightline is facing the best competition of his career.

I am only listing in my selections the horses that I think are the likeliest to win. If you bet exactas, trifectas or superfectas, consider horses I don’t have on my list of contenders. I’ll run through the races in the order in which they are run. The first Breeders’ Cup race Friday is Race 6 on the card and the first BC race Saturday is the third on Keeneland’s card. I will use the race name and not the number. Selections are listed in order of likelihood to win. The odds listed are from the track program. The actual betting odds will fluctuate, depending on the wagering.

FRIDAY

JUVENILE TURF

#5 Mischief Magic 8-1
#6 Persian Force 15-1
#2 Love Reigns 4-1
#11 Speed Boat Beach 6-1
#12 The Platinum Queen 7-2

JUVENILE FILLIES

#10 Chocolate Gelato 7-2
#9 Good Love 20-1
#3 And Tell Me Nolies 8-1
#5 Wonder Wheel 5-1
#14 Raging Sea 8-1

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

#10 Meditate 10-1
#5 Pleasant Passage 12-1
#9 Delight 6-1
#6 Be Your Best 8-1
#11 G Laurie 12-1

JUVENILE

#3 Cave Rock 4-5
#5 Verifying 10-1
#10 National Treasure 8-1
#4 Forte 4-1
#6 Blazing Sevens 6-1

JUVENILE TURF

#4 Silver Knott 3-1
#1 Victoria Road 8-1
#8 I’m Very Busy 9-2
#6 Andthewinneris 5-1

SATURDAY

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

#8 Goodnight Olive 3-1
#5 Frank’s Rockette 6-1
#13 Echo Zulu 6-1
#4 Ce Ce 9-2

TURF SPRINT

#8 Golden Pal 2-1
#11 Casa Creed 6-1
#12 Bran 15-1
#4 Campanelle 8-1
#1 Creative Force 10-1

DIRT MILE

#6 Laurel River 9-2
#9 Cyberknife 9-2
#7 Cody’s Wish 5-2
#3 Pipeline 8-1
#11 Three Technique 30-1
#5 Gunite 7-2

FILLY AND MARE TURF

#5 Tuesday 8-1
#11 In Italian 7-2
#3 Nashwa 5-2
#4 Above he Curve 9-2
#12 Moira 10-1

SPRINT

#9 Jackie’s Warrior 4-5
#2 Kimari 4-1
#11 Flash of Mischief 30-1
#6 Elite Power 6-1
#10 Willy Boi 30-1
#7 Super Ocho 30-1

MILE

#4 Modern Games 7-2
#13 Kinross 9-2
#14 Domestic Spending 8-1
#8 Regal Glory 6-1
#3 Dreamloper 6-1
#10 Order of Australia 12-1

DISTAFF

#6 Nest 9-5
#1 Malathaat 3-1
#7 Search Results 9-2
#8 Society 6-1
#4 Clariere 4-1
#2 Blue Stripe 20-1

TURF

#2 War Like Goddess 9-2
#11 Mishriff 6-1
#7 National Pride 7-2
#5 Rebel’s Romance 3-1
#13 Highland Chief 15-1

CLASSIC

#4 Flightline 3-5
#6 Epicenter 5-1
#1 Taiba 8-1
#2 Life Is Good 6-1

By Mark Belling, WISN-AM

The Democratic candidate for the state Assembly in the district that covers northern Racine County has used a different legal name for most of the past 18 years. The candidate, Anthony Hammes, changed his name in 2018 from Anthony Jacoby Mielcarek. The name change occurred shortly before Hammes/Mielcarek ran for public office in Racine. Hammes is actually his given last name. Hammes was born Kelly Hammes and was a female throughout her elementary and high school years. Kelly Hammes evidently changed gender identification in 2004 and legally changed name to Anthony Mielcarek in 2004. Court records indicate Anthony Mielcarek was the legal name from 2004 to 2018. That’s when the name was changed again to Anthony Hammes, reverting back to the original last name.

Hammes’ campaign website contains a brief biography of the candidate but none of it mentions anything about the name changes or former identity. There have been cases in the past where candidates changed their names in order to cover up trouble in their lives but there is no indication of any of that with Hammes.

Hammes is running as a Democrat in the district currently represented by Republican Robert Wittke. The district, which includes much of ultra-Republican Caledonia, is considered a safe GOP district.

Hammes’ website says he has been married for 15 years to local physician Dr. Diana Hansen. I have emailed Hammes with questions about the recent legal name change but have not received a response.

Mark Belling
July 12, 2022

California’s Crime Wave – What’s the Problem? | Full Documentary

For the past decade, crime in California has been escalating at an astonishing pace. And with no end in sight, the significant impact on residents and business owners is causing Californians to take necessary measures to protect their lives and property. What is behind the rise in the brazen behavior and steady deterioration of our society …

OVERVIEW

Only eight horses are entered in this year’s Belmont Stakes which, at a mile and a half, is the longest of the Triple Crown races.  Rich Strike, who shockingly won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 80-1 and then skipped the Preakness, is here and while he likely won’t be the betting favorite he’ll be a lot shorter priced than 80-1.  He’s also the puzzler in the race.  Was his Derby win a fluke or is he an improving horse who, with five weeks rest, will fire again?

This race is usually won by horses that run rather close to the pace.  None of these horses have run this far before and most never will again.  Often, all of them are on fumes in the stretch and horses that come from way out of it usually don’t have much left in the tank at the end of the Belmont Stakes.

This is written in anticipation there may be a wet track.

Back to the Preakness.  I totally nailed it with my picks on this site.  I not only had the 9-2 winner Early Voting but picked the top four horses in exact order!  That’s right; I hit the superfecta cold.  I had a much stronger opinion in the Preakness than I do in the Belmont and believe any of my top four choices here can win.

THE FIELD

#1  WE THE PEOPLE—He’s the pre-race favorite even though he didn’t run in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness and I can’t think of the last time that happened.  But he’s getting attention because of his 14-length romp in the Peter Pan stakes four weeks ago at this very track.  That race often produces horses who run big in the Belmont Stakes.  The horse has the perfect running style with his tactical speed and has perhaps the country’s best jockey in Flavien Prat.  His workouts at Belmont have been very good.

#2  SKIPPYLONGSTOCKINGS—He ran a non-threatening fifth in the Preakness and has only two wins in ten career starts.

#3  NEST—Here’s a filly facing males.  Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Belmont a number of years ago with a filly but that one was a lot better than Nest.  Nest was second in the Kentucky Oaks to Secret Oath who could do no better than fourth in the Preakness.

#4  RICH STRIKE—Who knows?  He sure passed the eye test in the Derby as he ran by virtually the entire field in the stretch like he was a quarter horse and they were mules.  But his prior races were nothing special.  He clearly benefited from the insanely hot pace in the Derby and will not get that here.  On the other hand, his races prior to the Derby were on a synthetic track and he may have moved way up on dirt.  He has trained well for this race and his owner and trainer clearly made the right decision in bypassing the Preakness.  If he runs like he did in the Derby, he will win.  If he runs like he did in the races prior to the Derby, he will finish last.

#5  CREATIVE MINISTER—-I picked him to run third in the Preakness and he did exactly that at odds of 10-1.  He is a lightly raced horse making only his fifth career start but he is running for the third time in five weeks and that may be asking too much.  He actually ran at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day but in an allowance race in very fast time.  He gets better each time he runs and one of his wins is over a sloppy track, which he might get in the Belmont.  He will likely sit three lengths or so off of what will be a moderate pace.  The question is whether he has the stamina to get the marathon distance of this race.  His breeding makes that question a tossup.  Jockey Brian Hernandez is very underrated.  If the horse improves yet again, there is nobody in the field who can beat him.  My tepid choice.

#6  MO DONEGAL—This deep closer finished a decent fifth in the Derby coming from as far back as Rich Strike but not going as fast as RS.  Trainer Todd Pletcher has excelled in the Belmont.  This horse actually beat Preakness winner Early Voting in the Wood Memorial in April.  My lone concern is that his running style will leave him with too much ground to make up in the stretch.  Jockey Irad Ortiz is a sensation and is winning lots of races at Belmont this spring.  This horse has been pointed for this race for weeks by Pletcher and has a very big shot at winning.

#7  GOLDEN GLIDER—He finished ten lengths behind We the People in running second in the Peter Pan.  None of his six races has been special but the Belmont Stakes has produced a lot of surprise winners over the years and this horse would be a surprise to me.

#8  BARBER ROAD—He’s another deep closer who ran sixth in the Derby in a performance almost identical to Mo Donegal.  He has an excellent jockey but his only two career wins were against very soft competition.

PREDICTION

HORSE                                                               PROGRAM ODDS

#5  Creative Minister                                                     6-1

#6  Mo Donegal                                                            5-2

#1  We the People                                                        2-1

#4  Rich Strike                                                               7-2

ANALYSIS

I’m not sure I agree with the oddsmaker on how the betting will shake out as I think Rich Strikes will take more action.  But if I can get 6-1 on Creative Minister, it’ll be a bargain.  As stated in the analysis above, he’ll be closer to the pace than Rich Strike and Mo Donegal and that gives him tactical edge.  If We the People runs like he did in the Peter Pan he might win this race wire to wire.  My strongest opinion is that one of the four horses above will win the race and that the four horses not listed will not.

SOME WAGERS

$25 to win place and show on #5  ($75)(adjust up or down to your budget and comfort level)

$2 trifecta 5 with 1-4-6 with all ($36)

$1 trifecta 1-4-6 with 5 with all ($18)

$1 trifecta 5-6 with 1-4-5-6 with all ($36)

$2 exacta 5 with all ($14)

$1 exacta all with 5 ($7)

ONE OTHER PLAY

In Race 10, the Manhattan, the race immediately preceding the Belmont Stakes, I like #2 Gufo (3-1).

OVERVIEW

Whether a horse race is interesting or not is irrelevant to people who bet on horses.  Boring races pay out just as fascinating races do.   So, even though this year’s Preakness seem dull, it is worth betting on.

First, let’s go back to the Kentucky Derby.  Rich Strike was one of the most improbable winners in the race’s history.   There were several horses rated above him on the Derby’s points eligibility system but those horses passed the race.  Even then, it took a last minute scratch to allow Rich Strike to draw into the body of the race, which he proceeded to win at odds of 80-1 ridden by an unknown jockey who spends most of his time at small tracks in Ohio.   There are two possible explanations.  The first is that Rich Strike was an improving horse who benefited from the stretchout in distance and a move back to real dirt after mediocre performances on a synthetic track.   He clearly benefited from the insanely suicidal pace put up by the foreign-based jockeys on the two frontrunners who essentially made fools of themselves by running their own horses into the ground.  The other explanation is that Rich Strike’s connections cheated.   But, there’s no evidence of that so we’re stuck with the first theory.

Epicenter, the Steve Asmussen-trained horse who ran an outstanding Derby, holding off my pick Zandon the entire stretch, only to be nailed at the end by Rich Strike, is in the Preakness and is the huge favorite.  Only two other Kentucky Derby runners are in: fourth place Simplification and 14th placed Happy Jack.   But there are several live horses who either skipped the Derby or weren’t eligible on points who have legitimate chances to upset Epicenter.   Once again, there is a lot of early speed in the race but I can’t imagine the pace will be as suicidal as in the Derby.

THE FIELD

#1  SIMPLIFICATION—Ran a solid fourth in the Derby and has a versatile running style.  Jockey Jose Ortiz opts off to ride Early Voting but replacement John Velazquez is a Hall of Famer.  He’s very talented but my knock on him is that he hasn’t improved this year and keeps running the same race and that won’t be good enough to win the Preakness.

#2  CREATIVE MINISTER—He actually ran at Churchill Downs on Derby day two weeks ago but it wasn’t in the Derby himself.  The horse won an allowance race in extremely impressive fashion and has run well in all three of his career races.  He is almost a clone of another entrant, Early Voting, in terms of how lightly raced both are and the amount of upside both have.  Jockey Brian Hernandez is underrated.   Possible upset winner.

#3  FENWICK—This one would be as shocking as Rich Strike was two weeks ago.  He’s run six races and five of them were rather lousy.

#4  SECRET OATH—This is a filly facing males coming off a dominating win two weeks ago in the Kentucky Oaks.   Trainer D. Wayne Lukas who has seemed to be over the hill 15 times always seems to resurface with a big time horse and he’s done it again.  Here’s my knock: while all of her races this year have been good enough to beat top class fillies, I don’t think any are fast enough to beat the caliber of males she’ll face here.

#5  EARLY VOTING—He was eligible for the Kentucky Derby after an outstanding second place effort over a tiring track in the Wood Memorial in April.  But trainer Chad Brown opted to bypass the Derby in what would have been the horse’s fourth career start to wait for the Preakness.  He did the same thing in 2017 with a horse named Cloud Computing and they won that race.  Early Voting may be the best three year old I’ve seen this year and gets a crack at a tired Epicenter while himself being rested for six weeks.   The horse has been either on the lead or pressing the pace in all three of his races and that is a concern here because there are other pace horses to contend with.  I hope jockey Jose Ortiz is able to harness his horse’s speed.   If so, Early Voting can win the race.   He may be the most talented horse in the field.  His trainer is one of the best in the world.   And he won’t be favored.  To the windows…..

#6  HAPPY JACK—The horse was a non-threatening 14^th in the Derby and may only be running because owner Calumet Farm loves to run in big races even if its horses are overmatched, figuring you can’t win if you’re not in.   Well, this one can win but it isn’t likely.

#7  ARMAGNAC— A former trainee of the now-suspended cheater Bob Baffert, this horse won an allowance race two weeks ago in California and will be one of those close to or on the lead.  He does have a spectacular jockey in Irad Ortiz but unless the new trainer has a stash of Baffert’s magic potion, I don’t see it in this race.

#8  EPICENTER— Every race he’s run has been excellent and he sure looked like the Derby winner 100 yards from home.   The jockey, Joel Rosario, is world class.  He’ll likely get a perfect stalking trip laying behind the speed horses.  But it’s possible he’ll regress after the brutally tough Derby.   Interesting note: in the last 28 years, the horse that ran second in the Derby has won the Preakness only once!   (25 years ago, my co-owned Captain Bodgit ran second in the Derby and then just missed in a blanket finish in the Preakness, finishing an unlucky third in what turned out to be his last race).

#9  SKIPPYLONGSTOCKINGS—There are some things to like.  He’s an improving horse who finished third behind Early Voting in the Wood Memorial.  He comes from behind in a race that will likely have a strong pace.  He’s had fast workouts in Florida.  But he seems a cut below on talent and will need to take a major step forward.

PREDICTION

HORSE                                                                                             PROGRAM ODDS

# 5  Early Voting                                                                                          7-2

#8  Epicenter                                                                                                6-5

#2  Creative Minister                                                                                  10-1

#4  Secret Oath                                                                                            9-2

#1  Simplification                                                                                         6-1

 ANALYSIS

I love Early Voting here and if I’m wrong I’m losing money.   I think he’s the best horse in  the race, he’s rested and he is likely to make a major step forward off his run in the Wood Memorial.   No knocks on Epicenter.   Creative Minister is so similar in profile to Early Voting and he likewise can win if he makes another step forward.   Secret Oath would be a great story, being a filly and trained by an elderly legend like Lukas, but I don’t think a win for her is likely.   The wildcard here is the pace.  If it’s too hot, one of the deeper closers could pull off a surprise win.

SOME WAGERS

$25 to win place and show on #5 ($75). (Adjust up or down according to your budget and comfort)

$10 exacta part-wheel 5 with 2-8 ($20)

$5 exacta part wheel 2-8 with 5 ($10)

$1 superfecta 5 with 2-8 with 2-8 with all ($12)

50 cent superfecta 2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with all ($18)

ONE OTHER SATURDAY PLAY

In Race 7 at Pimlico, I like #6 Cilla (7-2).

FRIDAY AT PIMLICO

A horse I co-own, Untreated (7-2), runs in Race 12, the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  (This is the race in which Seabiscuit and War Admiral had their match race made famous in the movie Seabiscuit).  Our horse has a solid chance to get his first graded stakes win.   Race 13 is the Black Eyed Susan, the race for three year old fillies and I like a longshot #5 Beguine (12-1)

OVERVIEW

By far, the biggest story of this year’s Derby is the absence of scandal-plagued trainer Bob Baffert who has dominated the race the past 25 years. Baffert has been banned by Churchill Downs and has a separate suspension issued by the state of Kentucky which is being honored in other states. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any Baffert horses here. Taiba and Messier were both trained by Baffert up until six weeks ago and then transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen, a former assistant to, you guessed it, Baffert. There is every reason to believe Baffert is calling the shots.

Taiba has raced only two times but both were brilliant. But no horse has ever run this race with such a limited background. Two of the biggest name trainers in the sport are Chad Brown and Steve Asmussen and neither has won the Derby. In Asmussen’s case that’s rather amazing because he has won more races than any trainer in thoroughbred history. One of them may get off the schneid this year as Zandon, trained by Brown, and Epicenter, trained by Asmussen, are the two race favorites.

In recent years, it always seems to rain on Derby day and a wet track is again possible.

No favorite won the race in a 20 year period in the 80s and 90s but the betting favorite has won ten of the last twenty races. This year, there are a remarkable number of no-hopers who seem to have no chance or very little chance. But horses like that often can come running late and finish third or fourth creating big payouts in wagers like the trifecta and superfecta.

In last year’s Breeders’ Cup and even more so in the big races earlier this year in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, Japanese horses have dominated. I believe Japan has the best horse racing in the world but racing there is almost exclusively restricted to horses based in that country, a parochial rule that has cost those horses the chance to prove how good they are. But their recent success in shipping to other countries and winning is forcing people to take notice. There is a Japanese horse in this year’s Derby named Crown Pride. He qualified for the Derby by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai. He is the wildcard in this race and can win.

THE FIELD

#1 MO DONEGAL—Todd Pletcher trained winner of Wood Memorial, ridden by superstar jockey Irad Ortiz. The #1 post position isn’t as bad as it used to be since the introduction of the new starting gate. Still, it’s not ideal and traffic issues are possible.

#2 HAPPY JACK—-Badly beaten in all three of his stakes races.

#3 EPICENTER—-Has won four of his last five including a romp in the Louisiana derby at fair Grounds. This race is gradually becoming the most important Derby prep because of its six week break before the Derby. The post position isn’t ideal but jockey Joel Rosario is a master. The horse has tactical speed and will be close to the pace. He gets better every race as the distances get longer. That’s a very positive sign. Possible winner.

#4 SUMMER IS TOMORROW—-Set a hot pace in the UAE Derby in Dubai before fading to second. he’ll face much more pace pressure here and seems likely to wilt.

#5 SMILE HAPPY—-He’s run four times and every one has been a good one. In his only two races this year he has run second to Epicenter and to Zandon, the two likely favorites. He had to overcome a wide draw in his last. He actually got the lead with a strong middle move before being passed by Zandon. Horses that make that kind of move often sustain it in their next race. The rider is obsessed with staying on the rail which either works brilliantly or results in traffic trouble. His program odds of 20-1 would be a steal.

#6 MESSIER—-Possible front runner. He’s one of the two horses trained by banned Bob Baffert and transferred a few weeks ago to trainer Tim Yakteen. Nobody knows what to make of the situation. This horse is very reminiscent of Medina Spirit, the Baffert trainee who won last year’s Derby only to be disqualified for a drug positive.

#7 CROWN PRIDE—-The world traveler of the field. This Japan-based horse shipped to Dubai to win the UAE Derby, making him eligible for this race. Japan has the best racing in the world and proved it when their horses dominated the races in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. This one is bred to get the Derby distance and is ridden by the leading rider in Japan. Foreign horses often have pedigrees suited for the turf but this one is bred for the dirt. He’ll likely be mid-pack and will have to make a move on the turn. He has been trained much more aggressively for the Derby than the American horses as our trainers tend to baby horses. The Japanese are winning lots of global races right now and the Derby would be a massive accomplishment. Discount this one at your peril.

#8 CHARGE IT—-The best of the Todd Pletcher horses and a possible winner. Although he’s lightly race, he likely would have won the Florida Derby with a better break. He will forwardly placed and if he has the stamina to finish things off, he’s dangerous.

#9 TIZ THE BOMB—-He’s run eight times and his slowest three races have been on dirt. This race is on dirt.

#10 ZANDON—-He’s run strongly in all four of his races with a powerful breakthrough win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last out. His workouts the last few weeks have been excellent and his jockey, Flavien Prat, is the best I’ve seen in this country since the now retired Jerry Bailey. As a closer, he will have to navigate through traffic but prat is great at that. he should be aided by a strong pace. A lot of people are touting this horse and expect to hear people cheering “Let’s Go, Zandon.”

#11 PIONEER OF MEDINA—-He’s been third and fourth in his only two stakes races.

#12 TAIBA—-The most interesting horse in the race. He’s run only twice but the last was a smashing win in the Santa Anita Derby. He was trained by Cheater Baffert who turned the horse over to Yakteen (same situation as Messier) in order to be eligible for the race. But the horse missed a workout after the Santa Anita race and not horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby in only its third start.

#13 SIMPLIFICATION—-Florida based horse always runs well and is impeccably bred but doesn’t seem to be improving. Veteran trainer has lots of horses but rarely wins big races.

#14 BARBER ROAD—-He’ll come from way back and has never run anywhere close to fast enough to win this race. he is the type that could clunk up late for third or fourth.

#15 WHITE ABARRIO—-He won both the Holy Bull and Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park near Miami this winter but has a lot of doubters. I’m not sure he’s bred to get the Derby distance. The trainer has aroused suspicion with his methods and gave the horse all of his timed workouts in Florida before shipping to Kentucky. There’s always one Derby horse that puzzles me and this one is it. He could win or finish last and I wouldn’t be shocked.

#16 CYBERKNIFE—-He won the Arkansas derby but with a slowish speed figure. Trainer Brad Cox’s horses always seem to fire in the Derby, however.

#17 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY—-This horse looked great last year asa two year old and also early this year but he simply hasn’t improved. Word is that his owners are forcing the trainer to run CC here.

#18 TAWNY PORT—-The third of the Brad Cox trainees. His rider in his last race has jumped ship to ride Cyberknife.

#19 ZOZOS—-Not to sound like a broken record, but this is the fourth of the Brad Cox trainees. This one is well rested after a strong second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. The wide post position is a definite negative and the horse seems to be bred for shorter races but there’s a lot of talent here.

#20 ETHEREAL ROAD—-Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Derby! But there’s an asterisk. The horse hasn’t done much and only got in because a number of horses with more qualifying points decided to skip the race.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
HORSE PROGRAM ODDS

#10 Zandon 3-1
#5 Smile Happy 20-1
#3 Epicenter 7-2
#7 Crown Pride 30-1
#6 Messier 8-1

VALUE

The key to making money on races is to bet the horses whose odds reflect the greatest disparity with their actual chances of winning. In this race, while the possible favorite, Zandon, may be likelier to win, I believe Crown Pride and Smile Happy represent the best value.

SOME WAGERS

Bet $10 to win place and show on #5, #7 and #10 (adjust up or down according to your budget)($90)

$5 exacta box 3-5-7-10 ($60)

50 cent trifecta 5-7-10 with 3-5-6-7–10 with 1-3-5-6-7-8-10-11-12-13-15-16-18-19 ($72)

$1 superfecta box 3-5-6–7-10 ($120) This is a swing for the fence wager and is only for those willing to accept that the wager will likely lose. If it hits, the payout will be huge

KENTUCKY OAKS

In Friday’s race for three year old fillies, I like #4 Nest (5-2), #11 Cocktail Moments (30-1) and #7 Echo Zulu (4-1) in that order. #11 is a major longshot.

OTHER RACES

Two other Saturday plays at Churchill Downs:
In Race 2, #8 Osbourne (8-1).  The horse is named after Ozzy
Race 11, the Grade 1 Turf Classic, #8 Adhamo (9-2)

HOW TO BET

If you want to bet in person, you’ll have to travel. Potawatomi apparently isn’t going to reopen its off-track betting room. There are several OTBs in northern Illinois and live racing at Hawthorne near Midway Airport.

An easier way is to bet online. It is legal and secure. I do not endorse any of these but urge you only to use legal American operations where the money bet goes directly into the racetrack pools. In no particular order, some of these are: 1st Bet, Twin Spires, NYRA Bets, TVG, DRF Bets.

By Mark Belling

The difficulty in summarizing spring elections is that you have hundreds of races in dozens of communities. Simply keeping track of all of them is tough and in any year, good or bad, you will win some and lose some. That being said, the Tuesday results may go down as the most successful spring election for conservatives in the last 50 years.

THE GOOD

It is impossible to overstate the success of the Waukesha County Republican Party’s WisRed campaign. Virtually all candidates endorsed by the GOP across the county won. For years, local Republicans sat on their apathetic butts and essentially conceded school board, mayoral, city council, county board and village elections to more organized liberals. This has been especially true in school board races where conservative communities ended up with very liberal school boards, often virtually handpicked by the teachers union.

But the Waukesha GOP, under chair Terry Dittrich, has aggressively recruited candidates to run, has screened candidates for endorsement and has printed flyers advising voters who the true conservatives are. The efforts have flipped several school boards away from liberal control and had impact on other local races as well.

The Menomonee Falls “Moms On A Mission” swept into office running a dominant 1-2-3. The backlash against an arrogant school board supported by old MF hacks began when the public’s desire to keep the high school’s Indians nickname was ignored. Overt embrace of Black Lives Matter after the anti-police riots and being caught red-handed inserting Critical Race Theory in the curriculum furthered the backlash. The result—-for the first time ever, true conservatives control a major MF agency.

A similar sweep occurred in the huge Arrowhead district and the various elementary districts that feed into Arrowhead High School. The endorsed conservative candidates won all of the elections, with several incumbents being thrown out. Arrowhead is conservative country but the superintendent of the school district came from Whitefish Bay and has arrogantly dismissed all efforts by parents to oppose liberally biased content in the curriculum. So much for her.

The conservative school board momentum extended beyond Waukesha County. Cedarburg voters elected the three conservative candidates who ran 1-2-3 despite vicious smear campaigns by Ozaukee County liberals. A conservative also won a closely watched school board race in Brookfield.

An enormous conservative win came in the most evenly divided swing county in the state, Kenosha County. Even though President Trump carried the county twice and it seems evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, the county’s government structure has been largely liberal. The retirement of longtime county exec Jim Kreuser opened that job up. While officially non-partisan, it was a Democrat-Republican showdown. The county’s court clerk, Rebecca Mentink, an elected Democrat, was backed by the county’s liberal establishment. Mentink was favored to win after running first in the February primary. But Mentink lost a tight election Tuesday to longtime Republican Assemblyman Samantha Kerkman. Kerkman’s win is another sign that Kenosha County is joining Racine County as GOP territory as the population grows in the much more conservative western halves of those counties. A big key to Kerkman’s win was her willingness to run bold TV ads showing the violence from the Kenosha riots and blamed the Democrat establishment for them. For once, a conservative candidate didn’t run away from a winning issue. Here’s an interesting bit of trivia: Even though Kerkman is only 47 and looks younger, she is the longest serving Republican in the entire state assembly. Not anymore, as she takes over at the Kenosha courthouse.

Helped mainly by a whopping margin in her home Waukesha County, Maria Lazar defeated Tony Evers-appointee Lori Kornblum for a seat on the state court of appeals district that covers all of southeast Wisconsin except Milwaukee County. A loss by Lazar would have been a disaster. After all of the legitimate anger over the soft criminal justice system and the lenience of Milwaukee DA John Chisholm, a win by a former Chisholm aide who was appointed by a Democrat governor would have been a train wreck.

THE BAD

It certainly isn’t a surprise that Cavalier Johnson was elected Milwaukee Mayor in a landslide. The 72-28 margin of his win over Bob Donovan is about an exact representation of the city’s population. About 72 percent of it is liberal and 28 percent of us are not. If you’re wondering what a Johnson mayoralty will be like, check out the last 60 years of city history.

One rare and big win for Democrats in Waukesha County came in the Oconomowoc mayoral race where incumbent Bob Mangus, endorsed by the Democrats, defeated GOP-backed Lou Kowieski.

Not all conservative school board candidates won. In a sign that Mequon is following Wauwatosa into the liberal sewer, the two conservative candidates for the Mequon-Thiensville school board both lost. Like Wauwatosa, Mequon has had a tremendous influx of Milwaukee residents. As some suburban communities clearly move more and more to the right, Mequon appears to be determined to commit a Wauwatosa-like municipal suicide.

Another bad development was the passage of some, but not all, school referendums. Increasing school spending and building while enrollment is crashing is fiscal malpractice and will leave districts with a debt time bomb. On the other hand, one of the largest referendums in the state, the whopper in West Allis, lost.

THE UGLY

An avowed Marxist who has bragged about beating up a Mexican police officer was elected to the Milwaukee County Board. Juan Miguel Martinez is now arguably the most radical elected official to hold any position in southeast Wisconsin.

TAKEAWAYS

The huge absentee vote margin in favor of Johnson in the Milwaukee mayoral election is a sign ballot harvesting remains alive and well in the state. If the Republicans don’t get it, and mail-in voting, banned, they could lose the November statewide elections

The success of the Waukesha GOP’s WisRed campaign proves what happens when local Republicans organize and flex their muscles. It is in sharp contrast to most of the other county GOP operations. It is also the kind of politics that the state GOP needs to embrace. But there is little sign of other counties and their lazy leaders stepping up to the plate and the Madison-based state GOP remains as irrelevant as ever.