OVERVIEW
The seemingly best three year old in the country is not in this year’s race because he is trained by the notorious Bob Baffert, who remains banned at all tracks owned by Churchill Downs, Incorporated, including the namesake track that hosts the Derby. In years past, owners of Baffert-trained horses would send them to another trainer so they could run in the Derby but those horses always regressed when moved away from Baffert’s “bag of tricks.” The owner of Muth decided this year to keep the horse with Baffert and tried to sue to force his way into the race. The tactic obviously failed. It is a long principle in American law that private businesses can refuse service, or order off their property, anybody they want, so long as they aren’t discriminating on the basis of protected class reasons.
Baffert is not suspended anywhere in the country. He is merely personally banned by Churchill Downs which is fed up with Baffert’s massive number of medication violations and the tendency of his horses to drop dead for no apparent reason. Churchill Downs is a bad company and has damaged racing but in the Baffert case the company is doing the right thing. Many believe the Baffert ban will be dropped next year. But this year is the 150th running of the Derby and Churchill officials did not want the spotlight stolen by the white-haired rogue that many believe is an inveterate cheat.
This year’s Derby field is top heavy. At least 13 of the 20 horses entered seem way overmatched. Since Rich Strike’s shocking upset in 2022 (he never won another race in his life), bettors seem to be indiscriminately throwing money at crazy long shots as they seek a massive payday. That could lead to more generous prices than you’d expect on some of this year’s stronger horses.
There is a chance of rain both Friday and Saturday and that can affect how the track plays. As my picks are made before that, I am not able to take into consideration any track biases that may emerge. I like a couple of closers in the Derby but if, for example, the track seems to be favoring speed, adjust accordingly.
I will assess every horse in the field. If there are late scratches, I will not be able to update this site. Simply throw out any horse I use in my wagers if that horse is scratched. I actually prefer not to post suggested wagers but people simply demand it. The problem is that some people bet several thousand dollars and others bet three bucks. There is no way to post a betting strategy that accommodates both. I do suggest ramping up or down the size of the wagers to fit your budget. Also, the best bet in horse racing is old fashioned win, place and show. That’s because the house edge (the percentage of the pool taken out by the track) is lowest on these bets. I suggest making win place and show bets the backbone of your betting. But I understand some people are trying to hit the home run and make a fortune and will gravitate on the very hard to hit trifectas and superfectas.
The wild cards in this year’s race are Fierceness and Forever Young. Fierceness, last year’s two year old champ, has run five times. His three wins were eye-popping but the two losses were ugly. He’s a horse that seems to quit when faced with adversity. Deciding whether to play him or not is basically guesswork. Forever Young is unbeaten in five starts but none of those races were in America. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai and the Saudi Derby in Saudi Arabia but no winner of either of those races has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young raced his two year old races in Japan and Japanese racing is now better than that in the United States and Japanese horses are killing it in races all over the globe. But the Derby is an oddball race with a huge field and foreign training methods don’t seem to work in getting a horse ready for this race. That makes him another very hard horse to make a decision on.
Then there’s Sierra Leone. Boy, has he looked good. But he comes from way off the pace and that’s really hard to do in a 20-horse field with all the traffic and the kickback of dirt from front-running horses.
The preferred method of trainers to get a horse to win the Derby has changed. Less is now more. Most Derby winners race only twice as three year olds anymore. In years past, they could run five or more times. This allows the fresh horses to peak on Derby day but it also shortens their careers as many are simply fried after such a brutal race with lack of proper foundation.
THE FIELD
#1 DORNOCH – The post position is terrible and horses that draw the rail are often finished before the first turn because of traffic problems and such. Dornoch has run good races but hasn’t really improved since his career began last year. He is a brother of last year’s Derby winner.
#2 SIERRA LEONE – The post position isn’t ideal but he may be able to overcome it because he lacks early speed and will drop back toward the rear anyway. He is the most consistent horse in the race and won the Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana and the Blue Grass in Kentucky in his two races this year. He has the right rider in Tyler Gaffalione who has won the riding title at Churchill Downs eight different race meets and knows how to ride this track. While Sierra comes from well off the pace, he makes his big move in the middle of the race and shouldn’t be all that far back at the top of the stretch. His trainer, Chad Brown, is arguably the most successful in America, and this would be his first Derby winner. I believe the Blue Grass was the strongest of this year’s Derby preps and I am giving all of the horses that ran in the race a chance to run very strongly in the Derby. Huge shot but must be lucky to get a clean trip.
#3 MYSTIK DAN – This is a longshot with a chance. He ran a huge race on a muddy track to win a stakes in Arkansas in February. He has an adaptable running style and an excellent underrated rider. Trainer Ken McPeek is the best trainer of long shots in key races in the country. This will be his fourth race of the year and that is not in sync with the profile of most recent Derby winners.
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM – Trainer Brad Cox’s horses always seem to run well in the Derby. This horse won the Louisiana Derby in March and hasn’t raced since which makes him the freshest horse in the race. Excellent jockey in Flavien Prat. The private clocker (workout analyst) I use isn’t sold on the horse’s current appearance.
#5 CATALYTIC – Trained by the controversial Saffie Joseph who was banned from Churchill Downs last year. This horse ran second in the Florida Derby but that’s a little misleading because winner Fierceness won the race by more than 13 lengths in a romp.
#6 JUST STEEL – Trained by the legend D. Wayne Lukas, the Antigo native who is getting close to 90. Lukas isn’t adapting to current training methods and has run this horse 11 times already including four times this year. Just Steel did run second in the Arkansas Derby. A win by this horse would be incredibly popular because of Lukas’ remarkable legacy. The young jockey, Keith Asmussen, is the son of the trainer of Track Phantom. I don’t see this horse winning but a top four finish is possible.
#7 HONOR MARIE – This horse is just a tad below the top contenders but obviously is a threat to win if he makes good improvement. He’s another deep closer who will have to work through traffic. His rider, Ben Curtis, never rode in the United States prior to this year but had a very successful season at Fair Grounds. Still, you’d like a rider with more dirt-racing experience (European tracks are either turf or synthetic.)
#8 JUST A TOUCH – This horse might win. I like him a lot. He’s making only his fourth career start but that’s no longer a negative and is more of a positive. He ran second in the strongly run Blue Grass and was leading most of the way. He is bred to love the 1 1/4 mile distance of the race. He has tactical speed which should have him sitting in third or fourth in the early going. Trained by Cox, who also has Catching Freedom and who, as mentioned above, gets peak performance out of his Derby horses. Jockey Florent Geroux is very good and is especially adept at avoiding traffic trouble. I have viewed every single workout of every horse in the race at Churchill Downs (all this is online now) and Just a Touch has been sensational. The workout analyst I use agrees with me. Horses that have strong pre-Derby workouts usually have a strong Derby. I have a concern about a strong pace and its impact on both this horse and Fierceness and think it will set up the closing run of Sierra Leone. But of my top three contenders, this one should be the best price. Don’t sleep on this one.
#9 ENCINO – Scratched.
#10 T O PASSWORD – He qualified for the race by winning a race in Japan that features an automatic entry to the Derby. But he has only two career starts. He has loads of natural speed and there’s a chance he will be on the lead. While I prefer lightly raced horses and love horses from Japan, this is an awfully big ask.
#11 FOREVER YOUNG – He’s unbeaten with five wins in three different countries. But none of them is the United States and foreign based horses simply do not win the Kentucky Derby. BUT! The speed figures in his wins this year in Saudi Arabia and Dubai were outstanding. His trainer has shipped horses to America before and—-I know this seems nuts——they always seem to win. His Japanese based rider has no experience running a rodeo like the Kentucky Derby. The horse has been kept wide in his previous races because he doesn’t like the “kickback” from the dirt of the frontrunners. There is no race with more kickback than the 20-horse Derby. If this was an eight horse field I’d pick him to win because I think he is the best horse in the race. His breeding is as strong as that of any dirt horse in the history of horse racing and while the sire and dam are Japanese, the bloodlines all trace back to American superstars. But it’s not an eight horse field. He has a huge chance to win but, as stated, there are quite a few negatives.
#12 TRACK PHANTOM – I have him in the middle of the pack. He is very talented but gave up the lead in the stretch in his last two races. I forgive that in lightly raced horses but this one has seven starts. He’s talented but he’s not one of my top picks.
#13 WEST SARATOGA – His speed figures are way too slow. The only reason to consider him is that crazy longshots have won the Derby before. But the vast majority of them run near the back of the field.
#14 ENDLESSLY – He won the Derby prep run on the synthetic track in Kentucky. But this race will be his first ever on dirt and there is no evidence he will improve on it.
#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT – He wins his races and looks good doing it but the times of the races come back slow. Trained by Chad Brown who also has Sierra Leone. The biggest positive is the jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., who is the best rider in America.
#16 GRAND MO THE FIRST- He’s never won a stakes race and finished 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby
#17 FIERCENESS – The enigma. As mentioned in my intro, he has raced five times with three eye popping wins and two brutally ugly losses. He just seems to quit if he isn’t on or close to the lead. He destroyed his competition in the Florida Derby (I was there and can attest with my own eyes) but that field was very weak. Trainer Todd Pletcher is as good as they come and owner Mike Repole is obsessed with the Derby. Veteran rider John Velazquez is still at the top of his game and the cleanest-riding jockey in the sport. If Fierceness breaks well from his wide post and gets clear sailing, he can win and might win by a lot. On pure talent, he is the best horse in the race. (Read that line again.) But in a wild race with a ridiculously large field like the Derby, where way more can go wrong than go right, it’s hard to pick a horse that doesn’t handle adversity.
#18 STRONGHOLD – He will be given consideration because of his California-based trainer who wins lots of races while also attracting a fair amount suspicion. The trainer learned his craft from one of the bigger racing cheats in the last few decades, the late Mike Mitchell. Well, what about this horse? He’s ultra-consistent but that’s why I don’t prefer him. I want a horse who is going to improve on Derby day and Stronghold has never run fast enough to win and runs the same speed figure every race.
#19 RESILIENCE – He should outrun his odds and has at least a small chance to win. Hall of Fame trainer and a hot veteran rider. He will have to overcome his wide post but has tactical speed and, while he doesn’t run real fast, he doesn’t seem to tire. He won the typically weakest Derby prep, the Wood Memorial in New York. I’m not sold on his breeding for a race this long. He’s one of those outsiders with a chance but not a big one.
#20 SOCIETY MAN – He ran second to Resilience in the Wood so I have to rank him lower than Resilience. The big angle here is this is only the second Derby run for arguably the most famous jockey in the world over the last 40 years, the legendary Frankie Dettori. Dettori was based in Europe his whole career but is finishing his career in America and won lots of races in California this winter. He desperately wanted to get a ride in the Derby but ends up stuck with an outsider.
#21 EPIC RIDE – if you want a crazy longshot with a chance to win and blow up the tote board, bet this horse. He ran third in the Blue Grass, which I have stated several times already was the strongest Derby prep (I think by far). But because it was only third place finished it is being overlooked. But Epic Ride ran fast enough to win both the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby and probably the Louisiana Derby. The wide post position sucks, especially for a speedy horse like this one that will have to be gunned the entire front stretch to angle over and get near the lead by the first turn. He’s bred to run forever and his “turf” pedigree is well-suited for Churchill Downs sand-based dirt track. I love Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in this race and those are the two horses who ran ahead of him in the Blue Grass. If you asked to pick a bomb rather than the likeliest winner I would tell you “Then, bet either Mystik Dan or Epic Ride.”
#22 MUGATU – As of the time I am writing this, he needs a scratch to get in. He’s been beaten badly in his last four races and I honestly can’t remember a single Derby winner ever who was coming off four rotten races.
THE PICKS
| HORSE | PROGRAM ODDS |
|---|---|
| #8 Just a Touch | 10-1 |
| #2 Sierra Leone | 3-1 |
| #17 Fierceness | 5-2 |
| #11 Forever Young | 10-1 |
| #3 Mystik Dan | 20-1 |
| #4 Catching Freedom | 8-1 |
| #21 Epic Ride | 30-1 |
| #7 Honor Marie | 20-1 |
SUGGESTED WAGERS
(adjust dollar amount to your budget)
In order of preference
- Bet #8 Just a Touch to win place and show
- Make a smaller bet on #2 Sierra Leone to win place and show
- $15 exacta box 2-8 ($30)
- $2 exacta box 2-3-4-7-8–11-17-21 ($112)
- $5 exacta box 2-3-8-11-17 ($100)
- 50-cent trifecta 2-8-11-17 with 2-3-8-11-17–21 with all ($144)
- $1 trifecta box 2-3-8-11-17-21 ($120)
- 50 cent trifecta 2-8 with 2-8-11 with ALL ($36)
FRIDAY
I have no strong opinion at all on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. If #15 Our Pretty Woman draws into the race, I would bet her (15-1 odds) along with #8 Tarifa (7-2).
OTHER SATURDAY RACES
I co-own a horse running in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Aqueduct named Green Up. It’s Race 10 with a post time of 4:39 central time. She is a super-talented filly that has been beset by some issues which have prevented her from winning a graded stakes, which we really want for her. Unfortunately, arguably the best filly in the entire country, Randomized, is entered in the race. Randomized is coming off a six month layoff but if she is close to her best she will win. Very aggravating that horse is entered in our race.
At Churchill Downs good value plays are #11 Coppice (5-1) in Race 7, the Distaff Turf Mile, #11 Cugino (10-1) in Race 9, the American Turf, #6 I’m Very Busy (4-1) in Race 11, the Turf Classic and #3 Gun Party (7-2) in Race 14, the last of the day.
