OVERVIEW
After an awful Preakness (slowest in 75 years with a disgracefully weak field), we’re back to the real deal. This year’s Belmont Stakes features, in my opinion, the five top horses in this year’s three year old crop, all of which ran at least OK in the Kentucky Derby and all of which skipped the Preakness. For the third year in a row, the Belmont Stakes is not run at Belmont Park just outside of New York City. The rebuilding of that track is almost done but in the meantime we’re back at Saratoga which just about everybody in racing is happy about.
Because of Saratoga’s configuration, the traditional 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont Stakes is again shortened to the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Derby winner Golden Tempo is here but under very different circumstances than in Kentucky. That race had a torrid pace that fried all of the frontrunners and the top finishers were all deep closers like Golden Tempo. The Belmont, on the other hand, with a smaller field and few committed early speed types, is likely to have a much more moderate pace that should favor frontrunners and compromise closers.
There are nine horses entered and five of them are trained by two guys. The dominant New York-based trainers, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, have three and two respectively. Pletcher’s main owner is from New York and relishes winning the Belmont and Brown grew up outside of Saratoga and also is hellbent on winning the big New York race, especially when it’s run at Saratoga.
I didn’t have the Derby winner although my top selections all filled the next five spots but my picks didn’t make money. We were profitable with my picks posted here in the Preakness as the horse I picked to win ran second to another horse I included in my selections. To be profitable for the series, I need to nail the Belmont. I have a strong opinion on this year’s race and I have historically done better on the Belmont Stakes than either of the other two Triple Crown races. I’ll assess the field in post position order.
THE FIELD
#1 Vitruvius Man Longshot from California may be part of the early pace. A win would be a shock.
#2 Powershift The lesser of trainer Todd Pletcher’s two entrants. He ran impressively to win an allowance race on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and has worked in company with Pletcher’s star horse Renegade since and has held his own. I think it’s possible the rider will be instructed to gun this horse to the lead to guarantee a fast pace for Renegade who comes from the clouds. A tactic like that is usually suicidal for the horse that is gunned, but with no other clear frontrunner in this race it’s possible Powershift could hang on for a long time.
#3 Chief Wallabee I picked him second in the Derby and he ran a very credible fourth and was the only horse close to the pace that didn’t collapse to the back of the field in the Derby. Trainer Bill Mott lives in Saratoga and won last year’s Derby and Belmont with Sovereignty, also ridden by Wallabee’s jockey. I like this horse a lot but my concern is that he simply doesn’t seal the deal in the stretch of his races and may prefer shorter races. He’s a contender but not my top pick.
#4 Renegade He ran second to Golden Tempo in the Derby with both horses coming from the clouds. But while Tempo had a dream trip, Renegade had traffic problems and bumping the whole race as he navigated a horrid post position. Renegade ran better than Golden Tempo. The jockey Irad Ortiz is flat-out the best rider on dirt courses in the world. I am concerned that Renegade’s style of coming from off the pace is not the preferred tactic in this race but jockey Irad always always has his horses in the right place. Prior to running second in the Derby, this horse ran monster races in stake in Tampa and Arkansas and has done more than anybody in the field. Renegade is primed to run a huge race.
#5 Ottinho The first of trainer Chad Brown’s three entrants. But this one has only one win and that was a slow victory in a maiden race. Very unlikely.
#6 Growth Equity The second of Chad Brown’s horses. This one romped in the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago and that race historically has produced lots of Belmont Stakes winners. This is a quality horse from a top trainer but he’s stretching out in distance and I’m not convinced that’s a good thing for him. He’s not the worst horse in the field but he’s not one of the best.
#7 Commandment He won four races in a row leading up to the Derby and ran a so-so seventh in the big race beaten five lengths despite having at least some trouble. Jockey Luis Saez, who is very good, is removed by trainer Brad Cox and replaced with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. JV is the cleanest rider in the sport and almost never makes mistakes. His presence gives Commandment a real chance and trainer Cox is one of the top five in the sport. But this one wasn’t my preferred choice in the Derby and he’s not in this race either. I thought his four wins prior to the Derby were against soft competition. That being said, he should get a good trip and his trainer hits at 30 percent with horses on rests of this length.
#8 Emerging Market I felt there was a chance I lost my marbles when I picked this horse to win the Derby in only his third career start. And, indeed he didn’t win as he faded to tenth after running close to that hot Derby pace. But that’s why I’m giving him another shot here. This race will have a much more moderate pace and Emerging Market should be in absolutely perfect position. He has another race of experience under his belt, has a top jockey in Flavien Prat and trainer Chad Brown is as smart as they come. It was always in the back of my mind that Brown threw this horse to the wolves in the Derby in only his third start to really hone him for this race——the Belmont. I felt Emerging Market had the most raw talent of anybody in the Derby and I think he has the most raw talent in the Belmont Stakes. KEY POINT: his last workout one week ago was sensational and every indication is that he has thrived in the five week break between the Derby and Belmont. He’s been based at Saratoga ever since the Derby which might be a positive but certainly isn’t a negative.
#9 Golden Tempo The Derby winner! Trainer Cherie DeVaux, a former assistant to Chad Brown, never ever runs her horses back on short rest so there was no chance she was going to run this horse in the Preakness. So he comes into the Belmont primed and rested. Jockey Jose Ortiz (Irad’s brother) is back aboard and he has a special knack of riding horses that come from the back. But Golden Tempo has almost no tactical speed and will not get the torrid pace that he benefited from in the Derby. I think he will absolutely run well as he is very consistent but his Derby win was fluky and three other horses in this race are better than him.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
| HORSE | PROGRAM ODDS |
|---|---|
| #8 Emerging Market | 6-1 |
| #4 Renegade | 2-1 |
| #3 Chief Wallabee | 3-1 |
| #9 Golden Tempo | 9-2 |
| #7 Commandment | 6-1 |
ANALYSIS
I have a very strong opinion that either Emerging Market or Renegade will win this race. I believe they are by far the two best horses in this race. I prefer Emerging Market because his running style should have him closer to the pace than Renegade and I think that’s preferred in this race. As for wagering, I do not have any of the long shots finishing in the top two. I do not think there is much value this particular race in betting exactas keying one horse over a bunch of them. My suggestion, which you can disregard, is to blow your whole budget into betting the top two horses to win place and show and then boxing them in an exacta. Win place and show betting has the smallest house takeout of any bet in racing and while not glamorous is the fiscally wisest thing to focus on in a race like this.
SUGGESTED WAGER
Adjust to you budget but the dollar figures indicate the ratio at which I would bet them.
In order of preference:
- $50 to win place and show on #8 Emerging Market ($150)
- $25 to win place and show on #4 Renegade ($75)
- $20 exacta box 4-8 ($40)
- $1 pick three starting with Saratoga Race 12 (the race before the Belmont): 6-with 4-8 with 3-8 ($4)
- $5 Daily Double starting with Race 12: 6 with 4-8 ($10)
- $3 Daily Double starting with Race 13 Belmont Stakes: 4-8 with 3-8 ($12)
OTHER RACES
It’s a great card at Saratoga on Belmont Day. My best bets are the last three races (as you can see from the above suggested wagers). In Race 12, the Manhattan, I like #6 Bright Picture (3-1). And in Race 14, I like #8 Elnajd (5-1) and #3 Winnebago (10-1). Those two races and the Belmont Stakes (Race 13) are my three strongest plays of the day.
