MARK BELLING’S 2026 PREAKNESS ANALYSIS

OVERVIEW

This race is a debacle. For the second year in a row, the Kentucky Derby winner is not in the Preakness field nor are any of the other top ten three year olds currently racing. Racing’s inability to change with the times has rendered this race almost irrelevant. No top American trainer wants to run a talented horse on only two weeks rest anymore. Most hate three weeks, will put up with four and prefer five. Horses used to run all the time but they don’t anymore. The trainer of this year’s Derby winner Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux), has not run any horse she trains back on two weeks rest in five years!! So of course she wasn’t going to do it with Golden Tempo even though it means he has no chance of winning the Triple Crown. The good news is that this total mess of a race in 2026 is creating immense pressure to change the schedule as soon as next year. My solution is to keep the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May, run the Preakness the first Saturday in June and the Belmont Stakes the first Saturday in July. But this year, we’re stuck with a mediocre field.

And, the race is not being held at its normal site, Pimlico in Baltimore. That decrepit track is finally being rebuilt and is supposed to be ready next year. Instead, the race is being run at Laurel Park, just outside of DC. The track grandstand is tiny and attendance is capped at a measly 6,000.

Three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby are here. All were also rans but two of them have strong chances to win the Preakness because the competition is so soft. The Derby was dominated by deep closers because an incredibly fast pace melted down all of the frontrunners. The Preakness pace likewise figures to be fast and the closers should again have a huge shot.

I’ll assess the field in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1 Taj Mahal Cherie DeVaux two weeks ago became the first woman trainer to win the Derby and this horse’s trainer, Brittany Russell, is trying to be the first to win the Preakness. Taj Mahal has run all three of his races at the Preakness track (Laurel) and won all three but against much softer competition. He has early speed and is one of many likely to be close to a hot pace. Trainer Russell’s husband, Sheldon, is the jockey. (Side note: Russell’’s veterinarian got banned from Laurel earlier this year and Russell’s horses all ran poorly for a month. But they’ve since rebounded and she continues to win races at one of the highest percentages of any trainer in America.)

#2 Ocelli This horse has never won a race but he might win the Preakness. He came from way back to finish third in the Derby. He is a very deep closer and it is very hard for those types of horses to win races because they often encounter traffic trouble and end up second or third. Their best chance is in fast paced races where the frontrunners all fade. That was the case in the Derby and may be the case here in the Preakness. Ocelli actually led briefly in the late stages of the Derby before being passed by Golden Tempo and Renegade and neither of those horses are in the Preakness. If Ocelli breaks his maiden (first career win) in a Triple Crown race, it will be absolute proof as to how far the Preakness has fallen.

#3 Crupper Won a minor stakes in Arkansas and his speed figures are well below those of most others in this race.

#4 Robusta Ran two weeks ago in the Derby and lost by 17 lengths. He lost his prior race in California by 16 lengths.

#5  Talkin  He has the best dirt rider in America in Irad Ortiz but not much else going for him. He’s lost his last three races by a combined 35 lengths. He normally runs close to the pace but his jockey always has his horses in the right place so I think he’ll be farther back than normal.

#6 Chip Honcho This horse was eligible for the Derby but Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wisely skipped it to point for the Preakness which he figured would be much easier to win. He ran a huge race two back in Louisiana but clunked in the race after that. He gets the Kentucky Derby winning jockey Jose Ortiz for this race (Irad’s brother). He normally lays close to the pace but Jose will likely take him back a bit in the Preakness. Contender.

#7 The Hell We Did Ran an okay second in a lesser stakes in Kentucky last month after running a really fast sprint race against weak competition in New Mexico. He actually did that from off the pace and if he reverts to that running style here, he is not impossible to see winning. Top rider in Luis Saez. Of all the huge price long shots in the race, this one would be my preference.

#8 Bull by the Horn His last race was on a synthetic track and all of his dirt races have been very slow. Controversial trainer does win lots of races but this one would be a shock.

#9 Iron Honor He won his first two races very impressively before getting a wide post position and then caught up in a brutal speed duel in New York’s Wood Memorial. He faded badly. Since then, superstar trainer Chad Brown has spent weeks trying to teach the horse to settle farther back. He gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat who is one of the best three riders in America. Brown takes blinkers off the horse for this race, a move that often makes it easier for horses to settle and drop back farther in the field in early stages. Brown is a master and targeted the Preakness specifically. This horse is the only winner of a graded stakes in 2026 in this lousy field! If Iron Honor can indeed settle and avoid the certain speed duel, he can win. This one probably has the most raw talent of any horse in the field.

#10 Napoleon Solo The Man From UNCLE! Named after the lead character in that 1960s TV spy show which later got made into a movie, Solo ran two huge races last year at two. But both his races this year have been compromised. He may be compromised again because he is very fast early and with all the other speed in this race, that’s a problem. It will be very hard to win this race wire to wire. Still, he is the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 win, although, as stated, that was last year.

#11 Corona de Oro Finished just behind #8 Bull by the Horn in his last race and has a similar running style to that one. Trainer Dallas Stewart runs in the top three with huge long shots more than any American trainer so you can’t automatically dismiss this horse. But, he’s another frontrunner.

#12 Incredibolt His trainer made a last minute decision to enter and that’s worth noting. This horse ran sixth in the Derby but had a very troubled trip. He had to alter course and was also bumped. Trainer Riley Mott evidently decided that the Preakness field was so mediocre that it was worth taking a shot on short rest with this horse. He is not a real deep closer but also is not a frontrunner. A mid-pack trip behind the hot pace might be the perfect running style for this race. Jockey Jaime Torres won the Preakness two years ago. Incredibolt is not a great horse. He’s just okay. But that may be enough to win this year’s Preakness.

#13 Great White Was scratched at the gate of the Kentucky Derby after acting up behind the starting gate. He actually took some betting action in the Derby despite having lost his Derby prep by 22 lengths. He has a wide post and the wrong running style.

#14 Pretty Boy Miah Major step up in class after winning a low level race in New York. But the speed figures for his last two races were pretty big. But this is yet another one who wants to gun for the lead and the wide post will make that very hard in a race loaded with other speed types.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

ANALYSIS

I picked a horse trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat in the Derby (Emerging Market) and I’m doing the same thing in the Preakness. I think Iron Honor has the best actual talent in the field. However, this is a tepid opinion as it is a very mediocre field and it is possible some crazy longshot can win. The likeliest scenario is that a horse from mid-pack or farther back will win if an expected fast pace develops.

SUGGESTED WAGER

(adjust dollar amounts to your budget)
I do not have a strong opinion in this race and am not betting it aggressively. In order of preference:

• $10 to win place and show on #9 ($30)
• $2 exacta box 6-9-12 ($12)
• $2 exacta wheel 9 with ALL ($26)
• $1 exacta wheel ALL with 9 ($13)

AGAIN: I do not have a strong feel for this race.

OTHER RACES AT LAUREL PARK ON SATURDAY

• Race 5: #9 Tideoftimes (10-1)
• Race 9: #3 Zihnal (6-1)

FRIDAY

In the race for three year old fillies at Laurel, The Black Eyed Susan (Race 13), a strong play on #10 My Miss Mo (7-2). That is my strongest play of the weekend.