OVERVIEW
Adapt or die. That old saying applies to a lot of things but especially analyzing horse racing. Top horses used to run all the time and Kentucky Derby starters often had ten or more races under their belts by the time they got to the First Saturday in May. Derby horses needed a “foundation” and starting their careers at age two was a must. Forget all that. It no longer applies. Horses that didn’t make their debut until few months before the Derby now can win the race. Three career starts is now more than enough and this year there’s a prime contender who has run only twice!
The idea now is to have a lightly raced horse primed to run the race of his life in the Derby. I find that this is often not in a horse’s best long-term racing interest but it sure works in winning the Derby and for a lot of owners, this race is the be-all and end-all.
I think this year’s crop of three year olds is rather weak. Last year’s bunch, led by Sovereignty, was one for the ages. Also, the field seems top heavy and many of the long shots seem to have very little chance of winning. (But “very little” doesn’t mean none.)
For those that follow my picks, I strongly urge you to play them in all three Triple Crown races. I invariably nail one of the Big Three every year and sometimes it’s the Derby. But your best chance of coming out ahead after the Belmont Stakes is to play all three races in equal dollar amount. It’s “diversification,” to use a stock market term.
KEY POINT: A huge change in racing is that many horses are now scratched prior to their races by regulatory veterinarians. This is done in the name of safety but many believe the vets are overly picky. Prime contenders now get scratched all the time. For that reason, there are three horses at the time of this writing on the “also eligible” list. These are numbers 22, 23 and 24. They will draw into the race in that order if there are scratches. I will analyze all 24, even though some obviously will not run.
THIS COPY CANNOT BE UPDATED. So, if one of my selections scratches just delete him.
I’ll analyze the entire field in post position order.
THE FIELD
#1 Renegade What a disaster! This horse was to be my strong selection to win but the #1 post position is a nightmare. No horse has won the Derby from the 1-hole in 40 years and there has never been a winner from the rail in the modern era in which 20 horses compete. The reason is that all of the horses in the giant field try to move toward the rail to save ground and that often results in massive traffic problems for the most inside horse. On the other hand, Renegade has the best rider on dirt tracks in the entire world in Irad Ortiz and if there is any jockey that can navigate a trip from this position it is Irad. Renegade enters the Derby off of a smashing win in the Arkansas Derby in which he destroyed his field and finished very strongly. Horses that do not finish strongly in their final pre-Derby race simply do not win. This horse ran well last year as a two year old but has become great this year, winning both of his 2026 races in dominant fashion.
#2 Albus Won a weak running of the Wood Memorial in his prep for the Derby. He finished well but his speed figures are significantly slower than others in the field.
#3 Intrepido This is a solid California-based horse but my knock is that he hasn’t improved at all from his two year old form. And the inside draw is problematic.
#4 Litmus Test The first of trainer Bob Baffert’s two horses (Baffert was banned by Churchill Downs for a few years but the controversial white-haired “magician” is back for the second year in a row). This horse actually seems to have regressed from his performances last year.
#5 Right to Party Comes from way back. I’d be shocked by a win but he could grind up late to finish fourth or even third. But I doubt even that.
#6 Commandment Main contender. Won all three of his races this year at Florida’s Gulfstream Park and I was there for all of them. But the last two were both won by inches. Tellingly, superstar jockey Flavien Prat gave up his mount on this horse to ride #15 Emerging Market and I agree with his choice. Trainer Brad Cox is one of the top five in racing. The horse does have a perfect style of running. He stalks the pace without setting it. Jockey Luis Saez is very good and the loss of Prat may not make any difference.
#7 Danon Bourbon One of two Japanese horses in the race. One of these years a Japanese horse will win the Derby and Forever Young just missed two years ago. This one’s last race in Japan was very good and he finished extremely well which is a huge criteria for me. Japanese horses are, in my opinion, the best in the world. But the training methods there are different than the way we prepare US horses for the Derby. On the other hand, this lightly raced horse is making only his fourth career start and has looked very good on the track this week in his morning gallops. While based in Japan, this horse was bred in Kentucky and has a perfect name for a Kentucky Derby horse. Possible upset winner.
#8 So Happy Has run very well in California races. Will be ridden by 60-year old Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Sentimental story as trainer Mark Glatt’s wife died only few weeks ago. This horse has tactical speed and will be close to the lead. I am not convinced he can get the 1 1/4 mile distance of this race.
#9 The Puma This horse didn’t make his career debut until January 10 but has run four races already. That’s asking a lot of a young horse. But The Puma keeps getting better and only lost the Florida Derby by a nose. He has faced the best three year olds in the country, including several of the main players in this race. Incredibly similar to Mage, who won the Derby in 2023. Same trainer as Mage and, like Mage, didn’t debut until January. The Puma has a shot but a few others are more likely.
#10 Wonder Dean The second of the two Japanese runners but this one made his last start in a weak and slow running of the UAE Derby in Dubai. Japan to Dubai to Kentucky is a lot of traveling for a young horse and this one doesn’t seem to be as good as the other Japanese horse.
#11 Incredibolt I don’t like his chances. He won a new Derby prep, the Colonial Derby in Virginia in March, but that was on a souped-up track against a nothing field. His speed figures do not fit with the top contenders.
#12 Chief Wallabee Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had never won the Derby until last year with the great Sovereignty and he may win it again with this one. Mott is an old school trainer who brings his horses along slowly but not this one. Wallabee didn’t make his career debut until January 10 (the same race as The Puma!) but all three of his races have been sensational, although the debut was his only win. I am of the opinion that this horse is getting better with every race. Mott’s go-to rider Junior Alvarado is aboard. Interestingly, Mott adds blinkers for this race and I think it’s to focus the horse a little bit more after his two photo finish losses. The private clocker I use is raving about how well the horse is working at Churchill Downs this week. Wallabee has finished all of his races strongly, is bred to get the distance, has one of the sharpest trainers ever and is giving visual signs he is going to run the race of his life. That being said, for the horse’s long-term good, I would’ve skipped the Derby and pointed to the Preakness or Belmont Stakes. But if you’re concerned only about the short term, this horse can win the Kentucky Derby. Maybe it’s too much too soon. But, boy oh boy, this one looks ready.
#13 Silent Tactic (SCRATCHED)
#14 Potente Bob Baffert’s best chance for yet another Kentucky Derby win is this one. He’s making his fourth career start, all in California, and has improved in each of them. Like most Baffert horses he will be rather close to the pace. This horse sold for a staggering $2.4 million as a yearling so big things have always been expected of him. Yes, he has a chance and nobody is better at winning the Derby than Baffert but his speed figures are a bit below others and he’ll need a big improvement to win. Possible, but not likely.
#15 Emerging Market This is the horse that signifies the changes in racing. He’s trying to win the Derby in just his third career start and that’s been done only once in the 151 year history of the race. But as Dylan told us 60 years ago, the times are a changing. This horse ran lights out in his career debut in February in Tampa and came back to win an important Derby prep in March in Louisiana. HUGE POINT: That Louisiana race is 1/16th of a mile longer than the other final Derby preps. It is the closest in length to the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby. It is a long race with a very long home stretch. That this horse could win a big race at that distance in HIS SECOND CAREER START is almost unheard of. That tells me is SPECIAL. The horse hasn’t raced since and is instead being built up by super trainer Chad Brown. Jockey Flavien Prat had opportunities to ride two other prime contenders but chose this one. He has enough tactical speed to stay close to the pace and the post position may give him a rather clean run in the long run to the first turn. The horse got a great speed figure in his debut and improved it in his second race. I believe this is the most talented horse in the race but the obvious concern is utter lack of experience going into a race that is roughly run, has a massive field and a raucous pre-race atmosphere. But at anything near his 15-1 program odds he presents compelling value.
#16 Pavlovian The opposite of Emerging Market. This horse has run ten times but its last race was a photo finish loss to Emerging Market in Louisiana. Despite all the racing, he comes in fresh as the Louisiana race was way back on March 21. The first several of this horse’s races were laughably slow but he just keeps improving. A win would be a stretch but far stranger things have happened in the Derby.
#17 Six Speed All of his races have been in Dubai and the last one was a second place finish to Wonder Dean in a slow running of the UAE Derby. No horse who has run all of his races in Dubai has won, or come close, in the Kentucky Derby.
#18 Further Ado He got a monster speed figure in his final Derby prep when he won the Blue Grass Stakes down the road from the Derby at the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington. Trained by Brad Cox (who also has Commandment) and ridden by the great Johnny V (Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez). The horse has early speed to be close and is a son of Gun Runner, whose progeny are perfectly suited for the Derby. Jockey Irad Ortiz gets off of to ride Renegade.
#19 Golden Tempo Third in the Louisiana Derby but may betoo slow to win. Is bothered by ouchy feet and I wouldn’t be shocked if the vets scratch him. But, the horse has a very good trainer and rider but his running style is to come from way back and in the Derby that means navigating a lot of traffic and eating a lot of dirt. An “on the board” finish is likelier than a win.
#20 Fulleffort The third of Brad Cox’s three horses but this one has never run on dirt before with all of his previous races being on turf or synthetic. If Cox thought this was a dirt horse, why wouldn’t he have run him on dirt before?
#21 Great White Seems too slow. Lost his last race to Further Ado by 22 lengths.
These are the Also-Eligible horses that will run only if there are scratches. I’ll comment briefly on them.
#22 Ocelli Third in the slowly run Wood Memorial behind Albus and Right to Party.
#23 Robusta Bad clunk in his last race. Ran okay in the race prior.
#24 Corona de Oro This, in my opinion, is the best of the long shots but he would need three scratches to get in. He has tactical speed and a great jockey but would have to gun from the far outside post ton gain position. The trainer has again and again on Derby weekend finished in the top three with seemingly impossible long shots.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
| HORSE | PROGRAM ODDS |
|---|---|
| #15 Emerging Market | 15-1 |
| #1 Renegade | 4-1 |
| #12 Chief Wallabee | 8-1 |
| #7 Danon Bourbon | 20-1 |
| #9 The Puma | 10-1 |
| #6 Commandment | 6-1 |
| #18 Further Ado | 6-1 |
| #14 Potente | 20-1 |
ANALYSIS
I think Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market are special horses but both have been rushed along because of the late starts in their careers. But I’m not as bothered by that as I would’ve been in the past because of recent horses like Mage and Justify who won the Derby despite similarly late starts. Renegade has more experience, is working great and has run the best and has the greatest dirt jockey in the world. But that post position is awful If he had drawn a little farther out he would have been the pick. My bottom line is that Emerging Market, if he can overcome the lack of experience and the insane Derby commotion, is the likeliest winner. Ten years ago I couldn’t imagine picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby in his third career start. Adapt or die.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
(adjust dollar amounts to your budget)
Listed in order of preference
- $40 to win place and show on #15 ($120)
- $12 to win place and show on #1 and #12 ($72)
- $5 exacta box 1-7-12-15 ($60)
- $3 exacta part wheel 15 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-8-9-10-12-13-14-18-19-24 ($42 or $45 if #24 draws in)
- $2 exacta 1-2-3-4-6-7-8-9-10-12-13-14–18-19-24 with 15 ($28 or $30)
- $2 exacta 1-12 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-8-9-10-12–13-14-15-18-19-24 ($56 or $30 if #24 draws in)
- $1 exacta 1-2-3-4-6-7-8-9-10-12-13-14-15-18-19-24 with 1-12 ($28 or $30)
TV and HOW TO BET
The Derby itself is on both NBC (Channel 4 in Milwaukee) and Peacock with Peacock carrying the whole card.
There is no in-person betting anywhere near the State of Wisconsin that I am aware of (Potawatomi closed its race book years ago). Betting online with US-based racing sites is perfectly legal and extremely easy. I don’t specifically endorse any particular site but some solid ones are: Xpressbet, Twin Spires, NYRA Bets, FanDuel, and DRF Bets.
