Belling.com

OVERVIEW

The winners of this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness are running in the Belmont Stakes and this looks like it could be a two-horse race, but neither the Derby nor Preakness winners are among the two. Instead, the two horses that seem to tower here are Sierra Leone, who finished second in the Derby in a three-horse photo finish despite having a wide and much rougher trip than the winner, and Mindframe, a horse making his third career start after two stunning runs so far. Derby winner Mystik Dan is running for the third time in five weeks and has benefited from incredible rides by jockey Brian Hernandez but is unlikely to run another big one. Seize the Grey, a horse I touted a bit in the Preakness but wasn’t bright enough to select or bet, is very unlikely to get the easy lead he had in the Preakness and isn’t likely here. There are a couple of long shots with a chance.

“I hear you went up to Saratoga and your horse naturally won.” Those Carly Simon lyrics in “You’re So Vain” have made Saratoga a household name even to people who don’t know horse racing. And, this year’s Belmont Stakes is at Saratoga, not Belmont Park, and that makes this year’s race very different and a much bigger deal. Saratoga in upstate New York and Keeneland in Kentucky are the two tracks that still draw massive crowds to come to the track. EVERYBODY in horse racing loves Saratoga. Running the Belmont there is a big, big deal. Belmont Park on Long Island is being rebuilt so at least the next two Belmont Stakes will be at Saratoga. That means one huge change: because of the configuration of the track, the normal Belmont Stakes marathon distance over 1 1/2 miles is not being used. This year’s race is instead run at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Derby. And, just like the Derby, the race features a long run up the frontstretch the first time around and then a full lap.

A lot of rain is expected Thursday which could affect the turf races on Saturday’s outstanding card but shouldn’t have impact on the Belmont which, of course, is run on dirt. I’ll assess the field in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1 SEIZE THE GREY 88-year old Wisconsin native D. Wayne Lukas came back from the horse racing dead to train this longshot into the Preakness winners circle. He was coming off a win at a shorter distance two races earlier and was sharp as a tack over a speed favoring track in the Preakness. I kind of liked him in the Preakness but don’t think he has much of a shot here.

#2 RESILIENCE This horse has run three identical speed figures in a row and has a five week rest since running a very decent sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He should be close to the pace in the Belmont. He’s apparently been training well over the Saratoga training track. Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott. Won the Wood Memorial two starts back. Contender.

#3 MYSTIK DAN It’s hard to knock this horse who won the Derby and ran second in the Preakness. But his Derby win was aided by a trouble-free trip on the rail and his underrated jockey gave him another good ride in the Preakness. Very few three year olds run strong races in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

#4 THE WINE STEWARD This is a possible longshot winner. He always runs a good race and has three wins and three seconds in his six career starts. He’s bred to get the 1 1/4 mile distance and has tactical speed and will be close to the pace. Jockey Luis Suez has been riding him but he’s on Dornoch in this race. Replacement Manny Franco is a lesser known, but very good New York-based jockey who should fit this horse well.

#5 ANTIQUARIAN He actually nipped The Wine Steward last time out in the Peter Pan Stakes and like The Wine Steward has good tactical speed and will be close to the pace. Trainer Todd Pletcher has an outstanding record in the Belmont Stakes and that has been this horse’s target all along as he did not run in the Derby or Preakness. Hall of Fame jockey and top notch human being in rider John Velazquez.

#6 DORNOCH I have always felt this horse is overrated and overhyped because he is a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. None of his three races this year has been special and he actually ran better last year as a two year old. But jockey Luis Saez is very aggressive and got off The Wine Steward to ride this one.

#7 PROTECTIVE Same owner and trainer as Mindframe but far less likely to win. He does have trainer Pletcher going for him but jockey Irad Ortiz, who rode him last time, chose the more talented Mindframe for the Belmont.

#8 HONOR MARIE This is a decent horse who ran very well two back in the Louisiana Derby and had an excuse for clunking in the Kentucky Derby, suffering through a rough trip. The horse has no tactical speed and will have to come from far back but he gets a rider upgrade with a switch to Florent Geroux. I have mixed feelings on this horse but mostly I just like several others more.

#9 SEIRRA LEONE There is nothing to dislike in this horse. He almost won the Derby, hitting the wire in a three horse photo finish, despite lugging in in the stretch and bumping the third place horse. Trainer Chad Brown has taken corrective action: he’s fitting the horse with a “bit” that give’s the rider more control of the horse’s mouth. And he dumps the former jockey and replaces him with Flavien Prat, ranked the third best rider in the entire world by Thoroughbred Racing Commentary. There’s more. Trainer Brown grew up just outside of Saratoga and desperately wants to win this race and has made it clear he believes Sierra was the best horse in the Derby. After the Derby, he shipped straight to Saratoga, skipping the Preakness to point for this race. He’s raced five times with three wins and two seconds and both of those losses were by a nose. This is a superior racehorse pointed specifically for this race and with a plan that seems to set him up to run a career best race.

#10 MINDFRAME If Sierra Leone loses, this one is the likely winner. I watched his career debut in person in a sprint at Gulfstream Park in Florida and it was an eye-popping run in which he destroyed a field in phenomenally fast time. He came back to romp in a route race at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day and was just as impressive as the Derby horses. He’s bred to stretch out again and his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has repeatedly gotten horses to run career best races in the Belmont Stakes. The same owner and trainer have Fierceness, the Derby favorite, but didn’t bother to enter him in the Belmont after the two had a tandem workout and Mindframe was much the best. Jockey Irad Ortiz dominates racing in New York and he and Sierra Leone’s rider (Prat) are the best two in the country. The one knock is that it is almost unheard of to win the Belmont Stakes in only your third career start.

(I find it very hard to separate Sierra Leone and Mindframe. Sierra may be the slightly likelier winner but Mindframe will have somewhat better odds)

PREDICTION

SOME WAGERS

Bet #9 Sierra Leone and #10 Mindframe to win and place (bet according to your budget)
$25 exacta box 9-10 ($50)
$10 exacta 9-10 with 2-5-9-10 ($60)
$5 exacta 2-5 with 2-5-9-10 ($30)
$3 exacta box 2-5-9-10 ($36)
$1 trifecta 9-10 with 2-5-9-10 with all ($48)
$2 trifecta 9 with 2-5-10 with with 2-4-5-10 ($18)
$1 exacta wheel 9-10 with all ($18)

OTHER SARATOGA SATURDAY RACES

In Race 3, play #8 Full Screen (7-2)
In Race 6, The Suburban, play both #6 Good Skate (20-1) and #8 Bendoog (2-1)
In Race 8, the Woody Stephens, play #7 Prince of Monaco (7-2)
In Race 11, the Manhattan, play #9 Measured Time (7-2) and a lesser amount on #6 Al Riffa (6-1)